Zavala County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Zavala County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.6, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Zavala County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 123.96 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $703K in expected annual loss and about 7.05 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Zavala County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Zavala County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including 4 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Zavala County ranks #130 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 123.96 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.05 / yr | $703K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.61 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $120K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.37 / yr | $684K |
| Hail | Low | 1.24 / yr | $113K |
| Lightning | Low | 36.80 / yr | $82K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.15 / yr | $262K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $10K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $7K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.35 / yr | $35K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $11 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Zavala County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1984, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Severe Storm (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Zavala County?
Zavala County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Zavala County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $703K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Zavala County compare to other Texas counties?
Zavala County ranks #130 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Zavala County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Zavala County since 1984, most often 4 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Zavala County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.