Dallas County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Very High

Composite Risk Score

99.7

National percentile: 100th

Dallas County faces very high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.7, 100th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $973M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Dallas County is very high, with a National Risk Index score of 99.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 100th national percentile and among the most at-risk counties in the United States. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $128M in expected annual loss and about 8.92 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $98M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Very High risk — $288M in expected annual loss and about 19.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $973M in expected annual loss for a population of 2.61M.

Beyond physical exposure, Dallas County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dallas County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 8 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.

Among 254 Texas counties, Dallas County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $973M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very Low Capacity to recover
Population 2.61M Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Very High $128M/yr
Very High $98M/yr
Very High $288M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hail Very High 8.92 / yr$128M
Cold Wave Very High 0.95 / yr$98M
Heat Wave Very High 19.11 / yr$288M
Tornado Very High 0.93 / yr$115M
Ice Storm Very High 1.23 / yr$5M
Riverine Flood Very High 4.61 / yr$324M
Winter Weather Very High 4.05 / yr$1M
Strong Wind Very High 4.36 / yr$5M
Lightning Very High 56.16 / yr$3M
Earthquake Medium 0.00 / yr$5M
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$349K
Hurricane Low 0.01 / yr$676K
Landslide Very Low 0.17 / yr$917
Drought Low 30.08 / yr$32K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Dallas County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Severe Storm (6), Flood (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2024FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
August 2020HurricaneTropical Storms Marco and Laura
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
August 2017HurricaneHurricane Harvey
February 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
May 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding
September 2008HurricaneHurricane Ike

Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dallas County?

Dallas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very High category and the 100th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Dallas County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $128M EAL), Cold Wave (Very High, $98M EAL), Heat Wave (Very High, $288M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Dallas County compare to other Texas counties?

Dallas County ranks #2 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very high rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Dallas County had?

FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Dallas County since 1966, most often 8 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dallas County's $973M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.