Terry County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 52th
Terry County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 52.0, 52th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Terry County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 52.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 52nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.41 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 102.10 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Terry County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Terry County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Terry County ranks #132 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 4.41 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | High | 102.10 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.53 / yr | $69K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.99 / yr | $534K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $55K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.48 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.40 / yr | $24K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.37 / yr | $95K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.59 / yr | $60K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Terry County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Terry County?
Terry County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 52.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 52th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Terry County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $3M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Terry County compare to other Texas counties?
Terry County ranks #132 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Terry County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Terry County since 1992, most often 4 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Terry County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.