Duval County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Duval County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.4, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Duval County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 54.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 1.84 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $529K in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $358K in expected annual loss and about 0.99 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Duval County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Duval County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 8 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Duval County ranks #128 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 1.84 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $529K |
| Hail | Medium | 0.99 / yr | $358K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.00 / yr | $587K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $30K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.18 / yr | $43K |
| Drought | Low | 86.24 / yr | $20K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.42 / yr | $314K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $72K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $4K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $9 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 41.22 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Duval County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Fire (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Duval County?
Duval County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Duval County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $6M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $529K EAL), Hail (Medium, $358K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Duval County compare to other Texas counties?
Duval County ranks #128 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Duval County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Duval County since 1967, most often 8 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Duval County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.