Tarrant County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Tarrant County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.1, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $608M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Tarrant County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 99.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $113M in expected annual loss and about 9.42 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $144M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $50M in expected annual loss and about 19.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $608M in expected annual loss for a population of 2.11M.
Beyond physical exposure, Tarrant County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Tarrant County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 8 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Tarrant County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 9.42 / yr | $113M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.89 / yr | $144M |
| Heat Wave | High | 19.11 / yr | $50M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.36 / yr | $258M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.95 / yr | $29M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.15 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 4.11 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 54.14 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.19 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $728K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.13 / yr | $5K |
| Drought | Low | 35.86 / yr | $46K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tarrant County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Severe Storm (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tarrant County?
Tarrant County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.1 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tarrant County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $113M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $144M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $50M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tarrant County compare to other Texas counties?
Tarrant County ranks #4 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tarrant County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Tarrant County since 1966, most often 8 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tarrant County's $608M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.