Hidalgo County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Hidalgo County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.0, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $310M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hidalgo County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 99.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $88M in expected annual loss and about 3.08 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $127M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.55 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $310M in expected annual loss for a population of 870K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hidalgo County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Hidalgo County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 15 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hidalgo County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 3.08 / yr | $88M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.13 / yr | $127M |
| Hail | Very High | 0.55 / yr | $10M |
| Heat Wave | High | 8.97 / yr | $13M |
| Drought | High | 66.09 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.16 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.25 / yr | $55M |
| Tornado | High | 0.27 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 0.74 / yr | $432K |
| Lightning | High | 39.94 / yr | $833K |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.53 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $350K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $828K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $685 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hidalgo County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (15), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hidalgo County?
Hidalgo County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hidalgo County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $88M EAL), Hurricane (Very High, $127M EAL), Hail (Very High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hidalgo County compare to other Texas counties?
Hidalgo County ranks #5 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hidalgo County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Hidalgo County since 1967, most often 15 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hidalgo County's $310M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.