Collin County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Collin County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.9, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $716M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Collin County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $97M in expected annual loss and about 8.79 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $420M in expected annual loss and about 0.86 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 18.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $716M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.06M.
Beyond physical exposure, Collin County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Collin County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 5 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Collin County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 8.79 / yr | $97M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.86 / yr | $420M |
| Heat Wave | High | 18.37 / yr | $18M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.11 / yr | $153M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.05 / yr | $19M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.23 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.58 / yr | $625K |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.40 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $635K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.19 / yr | $650K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.01 / yr | $292K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 29.76 / yr | $47K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Collin County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (4), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Collin County?
Collin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Collin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $97M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $420M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $18M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Collin County compare to other Texas counties?
Collin County ranks #6 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Collin County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Collin County since 1966, most often 5 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Collin County's $716M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.