Travis County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Travis County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.7, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $376M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Travis County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Travis County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $96M in expected annual loss and about 0.54 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 3.90 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 10.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $376M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.29M.
Beyond physical exposure, Travis County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Travis County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1991, including 11 for fire events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Travis County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Very High | 0.54 / yr | $96M |
| Hail | Very High | 3.90 / yr | $25M |
| Heat Wave | High | 10.32 / yr | $23M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.46 / yr | $214M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.61 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 49.21 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $7M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.55 / yr | $645K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.79 / yr | $270K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.29 / yr | $20K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $413K |
| Drought | Low | 59.99 / yr | $181K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Travis County has received 37 federal disaster declarations since 1991, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (11), Hurricane (8), Flood (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 37 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Travis County?
Travis County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Travis County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Very High, $96M EAL), Hail (Very High, $25M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $23M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Travis County compare to other Texas counties?
Travis County ranks #7 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Travis County had?
FEMA records 37 federal disaster declarations for Travis County since 1991, most often 11 for fire events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Travis County's $376M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.