Bexar County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
Bexar County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 99.4, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $619M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Bexar County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 99.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $72M in expected annual loss and about 2.96 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $124M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Very High risk — $365M in expected annual loss and about 7.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $619M in expected annual loss for a population of 2.01M.
Beyond physical exposure, Bexar County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Bexar County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1988, including 12 for hurricane events and 8 for fire events. The most recent was Duke Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Bexar County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 2.96 / yr | $72M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.43 / yr | $124M |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 7.46 / yr | $365M |
| Heat Wave | High | 10.32 / yr | $39M |
| Lightning | High | 45.98 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.53 / yr | $10M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 2.84 / yr | $311K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $26K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.04 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.19 / yr | $324K |
| Drought | Medium | 81.46 / yr | $435K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $437K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bexar County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1988, most recently Duke Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Fire (8), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Duke Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| September 2011 | Fire | Pat Gross Fire |
| September 2011 | Fire | Big Oak Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bexar County?
Bexar County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 99.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bexar County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $72M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $124M EAL), Riverine Flood (Very High, $365M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bexar County compare to other Texas counties?
Bexar County ranks #3 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bexar County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Bexar County since 1988, most often 12 for hurricane events and 8 for fire events. The most recent was Duke Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bexar County's $619M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.