Medina County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 69th
Medina County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 68.7, 69th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Medina County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 68.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 69th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 122.27 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $753K in expected annual loss and about 42.77 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.70 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Medina County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Medina County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 4 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Medina County ranks #84 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 122.27 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 42.77 / yr | $753K |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.70 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.53 / yr | $922K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $520K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $13M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.89 / yr | $813K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 2.16 / yr | $107K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $138K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $1K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.53 / yr | $483K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.12 / yr | $24K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Medina County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Fire (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| October 2007 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Erin |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Medina County?
Medina County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 68.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 69th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Medina County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Lightning (High, $753K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Medina County compare to other Texas counties?
Medina County ranks #84 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Medina County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Medina County since 1993, most often 4 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Medina County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.