Hardin County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Hardin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.6, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hardin County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 69.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 76.57 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $753K in expected annual loss and about 0.76 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 56K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hardin County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Hardin County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hardin County ranks #83 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 76.57 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.76 / yr | $753K |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.72 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $535K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.86 / yr | $837K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.25 / yr | $11M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.32 / yr | $51K |
| Drought | Low | 22.89 / yr | $73K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.03 / yr | $368K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $83K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.00 / yr | $91K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $84 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hardin County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Severe Storm (6), Fire (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hardin County?
Hardin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hardin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $753K EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hardin County compare to other Texas counties?
Hardin County ranks #83 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hardin County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Hardin County since 1973, most often 9 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hardin County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.