Fannin County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Fannin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 68.1, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fannin County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 68.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 33.95 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.24 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 15.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 36K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fannin County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Fannin County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Fannin County ranks #85 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 33.95 / yr | $8M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.24 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.89 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $6M |
| Hail | Medium | 6.97 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $173K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.68 / yr | $880K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $65K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $231K |
| Lightning | Low | 55.80 / yr | $203K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.71 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.47 / yr | $34K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $78 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fannin County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fannin County?
Fannin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 68.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fannin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $8M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fannin County compare to other Texas counties?
Fannin County ranks #85 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fannin County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Fannin County since 1966, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fannin County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.