Hutchinson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Hutchinson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.7, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hutchinson County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 67.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 94.79 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.94 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hutchinson County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Hutchinson County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Double S Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hutchinson County ranks #86 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 94.79 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 8.94 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.95 / yr | $342K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.74 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.81 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.31 / yr | $206K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.57 / yr | $755K |
| Lightning | Medium | 47.64 / yr | $266K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $105K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.63 / yr | $128K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $88 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hutchinson County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Double S Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Double S Fire |
| February 2024 | Fire | Smokehouse Creek Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2018 | Fire | Harbor Bay Fire |
| May 2014 | Fire | Double Diamond Fire |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2011 | Fire | Reimer Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hutchinson County?
Hutchinson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hutchinson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $6M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hutchinson County compare to other Texas counties?
Hutchinson County ranks #86 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hutchinson County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Hutchinson County since 1989, most often 9 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Double S Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hutchinson County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.