Uvalde County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Uvalde County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.0, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Uvalde County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 144.73 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.57 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 7.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Uvalde County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Uvalde County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Uvalde County ranks #82 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 144.73 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.57 / yr | $16M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.05 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $159K |
| Hail | Low | 1.77 / yr | $392K |
| Lightning | Medium | 40.84 / yr | $278K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $189K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.00 / yr | $58K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $909K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $298 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.53 / yr | $321K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.42 / yr | $190K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $16K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Uvalde County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (3), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Uvalde County?
Uvalde County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Uvalde County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $16M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Uvalde County compare to other Texas counties?
Uvalde County ranks #82 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Uvalde County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Uvalde County since 1990, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Uvalde County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.