Lubbock County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Lubbock County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.2, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $214M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lubbock County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lubbock County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very High risk — $62M in expected annual loss and about 76.01 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 4.93 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 2.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $214M in expected annual loss for a population of 310K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lubbock County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lubbock County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Lubbock County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Very High | 76.01 / yr | $62M |
| Hail | Very High | 4.93 / yr | $35M |
| Strong Wind | Very High | 2.21 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | High | 0.61 / yr | $32M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 7.37 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.21 / yr | $15M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.25 / yr | $47M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $750K |
| Lightning | High | 47.93 / yr | $804K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $439K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $54K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $117 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lubbock County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (5), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lubbock County?
Lubbock County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.2 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lubbock County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Very High, $62M EAL), Hail (Very High, $35M EAL), Strong Wind (Very High, $17M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lubbock County compare to other Texas counties?
Lubbock County ranks #12 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lubbock County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Lubbock County since 1970, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lubbock County's $214M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.