Denton County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Denton County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.9, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $355M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Denton County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Denton County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $145M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $43M in expected annual loss and about 9.74 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 18.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $355M in expected annual loss for a population of 906K.
Beyond physical exposure, Denton County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Denton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Denton County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Very High | 0.95 / yr | $145M |
| Hail | Very High | 9.74 / yr | $43M |
| Heat Wave | High | 18.16 / yr | $20M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.19 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.11 / yr | $119M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.05 / yr | $14M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.39 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.84 / yr | $414K |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.64 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $236K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 30.38 / yr | $69K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Denton County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Denton County?
Denton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.9 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Denton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Very High, $145M EAL), Hail (Very High, $43M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $20M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Denton County compare to other Texas counties?
Denton County ranks #10 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Denton County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Denton County since 1974, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Denton County's $355M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.