Montgomery County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Montgomery County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.7, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $222M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Montgomery County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 69.94 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $62M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $222M in expected annual loss for a population of 620K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Montgomery County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 9 for fire events. The most recent was Pauline Road Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Montgomery County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 69.94 / yr | $9M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.89 / yr | $62M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.63 / yr | $23M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.90 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.68 / yr | $94M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.90 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.14 / yr | $18M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.61 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 2.57 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 1.47 / yr | $336K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $426K |
| Drought | Medium | 17.14 / yr | $547K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $713K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Pauline Road Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Fire (9), Flood (8).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Pauline Road Fire |
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Flood | Tropical Storm Imelda |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $9M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $62M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $23M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Texas counties?
Montgomery County ranks #14 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 9 for fire events. The most recent was Pauline Road Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $222M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.