Nueces County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 97th
Nueces County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.6, 97th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $186M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Nueces County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 97th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Nueces County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 2.40 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $83M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 59.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $186M in expected annual loss for a population of 353K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nueces County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Nueces County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 17 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Nueces County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 2.40 / yr | $25M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.14 / yr | $83M |
| Drought | High | 59.60 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | High | 16.71 / yr | $11M |
| Tornado | High | 0.37 / yr | $12M |
| Lightning | High | 44.01 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.74 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 4.43 / yr | $44M |
| Hail | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 0.86 / yr | $185K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $350K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $182K |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $174K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $743 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nueces County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (17), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nueces County?
Nueces County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.6 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 97th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nueces County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $25M EAL), Hurricane (Very High, $83M EAL), Drought (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nueces County compare to other Texas counties?
Nueces County ranks #11 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nueces County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Nueces County since 1967, most often 17 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nueces County's $186M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.