Jefferson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Jefferson County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.7, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $141M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Jefferson County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 95.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 78.84 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $21M in expected annual loss and about 0.76 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Very High risk — $61M in expected annual loss and about 0.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $141M in expected annual loss for a population of 256K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jefferson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Jefferson County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Jefferson County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 78.84 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | High | 0.76 / yr | $21M |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0.17 / yr | $61M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.95 / yr | $11M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.54 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.24 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.11 / yr | $32M |
| Drought | Medium | 19.89 / yr | $997K |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.76 / yr | $1M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.85 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $100K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $466K |
| Hail | Low | 1.47 / yr | $334K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $142 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jefferson County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Flood (7), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Flood | Tropical Storm Imelda |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jefferson County?
Jefferson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jefferson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $6M EAL), Tornado (High, $21M EAL), Hurricane (Very High, $61M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jefferson County compare to other Texas counties?
Jefferson County ranks #13 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jefferson County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Jefferson County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jefferson County's $141M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.