El Paso County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
El Paso County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.5, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $121M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
El Paso County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 95th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of El Paso County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 49.36 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.42 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $121M in expected annual loss for a population of 864K.
Beyond physical exposure, El Paso County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: El Paso County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 5 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, El Paso County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 49.36 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 2.42 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very High | 0.43 / yr | $15M |
| Heat Wave | High | 7.28 / yr | $14M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.96 / yr | $70M |
| Drought | High | 40.03 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.33 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.20 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $119K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $148K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $607 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $21K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.03 / yr | $434K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $23 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
El Paso County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (5), Fire (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for El Paso County?
El Paso County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in El Paso County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $7M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Hail (Very High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does El Paso County compare to other Texas counties?
El Paso County ranks #15 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has El Paso County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for El Paso County since 1974, most often 5 for hurricane events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. El Paso County's $121M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.