Upshur County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Upshur County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.9, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Upshur County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.15 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.51 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.
Beyond physical exposure, Upshur County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Upshur County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Upshur County ranks #87 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.15 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.51 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.43 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.21 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.63 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $260K |
| Drought | Medium | 29.64 / yr | $328K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.37 / yr | $86K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $194K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.86 / yr | $7M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $124K |
| Lightning | Low | 59.96 / yr | $122K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Upshur County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Fire (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Upshur County?
Upshur County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Upshur County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (High, $7M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Upshur County compare to other Texas counties?
Upshur County ranks #87 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Upshur County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Upshur County since 1966, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Upshur County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.