Bandera County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Bandera County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.7, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Bandera County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Bandera County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $554K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $597K in expected annual loss and about 44.33 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $621K in expected annual loss and about 2.90 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bandera County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Bandera County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Bandera County ranks #88 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $554K |
| Lightning | High | 44.33 / yr | $597K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.90 / yr | $621K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.36 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.37 / yr | $83K |
| Drought | Medium | 148.13 / yr | $326K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.55 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.19 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $507K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $35K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.00 / yr | $153K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $265K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $4K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bandera County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Fire (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bandera County?
Bandera County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bandera County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $554K EAL), Lightning (High, $597K EAL), Hail (Medium, $621K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bandera County compare to other Texas counties?
Bandera County ranks #88 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bandera County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Bandera County since 1978, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bandera County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.