Deaf Smith County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Deaf Smith County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.8, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Deaf Smith County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 110.09 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 6.56 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $407K in expected annual loss and about 10.51 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, Deaf Smith County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Deaf Smith County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 4 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Deaf Smith County ranks #99 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 110.09 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | High | 6.56 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.51 / yr | $407K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.32 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $654K |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.76 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $125K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.49 / yr | $110K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.42 / yr | $95K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.45 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $3 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Deaf Smith County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Severe Ice Storm (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Deaf Smith County?
Deaf Smith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Deaf Smith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $4M EAL), Hail (High, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $407K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Deaf Smith County compare to other Texas counties?
Deaf Smith County ranks #99 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Deaf Smith County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Deaf Smith County since 1992, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Deaf Smith County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.