Aransas County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Aransas County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.2, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Aransas County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Aransas County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.10 events per year; and coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Medium risk — $647K in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Aransas County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Aransas County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 18 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Aransas County ranks #101 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.10 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $647K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $66K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.66 / yr | $379K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.19 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.61 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | Low | 46.89 / yr | $79K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.30 / yr | $22K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.88 / yr | $49K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.74 / yr | $106K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $10K |
| Drought | Very Low | 43.87 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Aransas County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (18), Flood (4), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| April 2009 | Fire | Holiday Beach Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Aransas County?
Aransas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Aransas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $7M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Coastal Flood (Medium, $647K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Aransas County compare to other Texas counties?
Aransas County ranks #101 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Aransas County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Aransas County since 1967, most often 18 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Aransas County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.