Cherokee County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Cherokee County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.6, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cherokee County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cherokee County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.79 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 22.57 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 19.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cherokee County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cherokee County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 7 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Cherokee County ranks #100 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 3.79 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 22.57 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.11 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $366K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $252K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $488K |
| Lightning | Medium | 61.81 / yr | $390K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.26 / yr | $92K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.41 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.54 / yr | $7M |
| Hail | Low | 3.63 / yr | $134K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $104K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cherokee County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Severe Storm (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cherokee County?
Cherokee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cherokee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cherokee County compare to other Texas counties?
Cherokee County ranks #100 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cherokee County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Cherokee County since 1987, most often 7 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cherokee County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.