Bell County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Bell County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.1, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $107M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bell County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $9M in expected annual loss and about 4.16 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $32M in expected annual loss and about 0.62 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 49.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $107M in expected annual loss for a population of 370K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bell County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Bell County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 7 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Bell County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 4.16 / yr | $9M |
| Tornado | High | 0.62 / yr | $32M |
| Lightning | Very High | 49.09 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 3.21 / yr | $829K |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.53 / yr | $12M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.37 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.07 / yr | $38M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.76 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.82 / yr | $321K |
| Drought | Low | 50.83 / yr | $339K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $774 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $148K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bell County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Hurricane (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| June 2008 | Fire | Rein Street Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bell County?
Bell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $9M EAL), Tornado (High, $32M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bell County compare to other Texas counties?
Bell County ranks #21 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bell County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Bell County since 1974, most often 7 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bell County's $107M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.