McLennan County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
McLennan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.2, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $84M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
McLennan County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $29M in expected annual loss and about 0.71 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 51.49 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $84M in expected annual loss for a population of 260K.
Beyond physical exposure, McLennan County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: McLennan County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, McLennan County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.71 / yr | $29M |
| Lightning | Very High | 51.49 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.68 / yr | $12M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 16.95 / yr | $6M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.68 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.29 / yr | $29M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.90 / yr | $205K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.06 / yr | $723K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $492K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.11 / yr | $71K |
| Drought | Low | 44.46 / yr | $180K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $487 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McLennan County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Hurricane (5), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| August 2013 | Other | Explosion |
| April 2013 | Other | Explosion |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2007 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dean |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McLennan County?
McLennan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McLennan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $29M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McLennan County compare to other Texas counties?
McLennan County ranks #20 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McLennan County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for McLennan County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McLennan County's $84M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.