Guadalupe County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Guadalupe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.5, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $124M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Guadalupe County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Guadalupe County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $100M in expected annual loss and about 2.89 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.31 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $124M in expected annual loss for a population of 173K.
Beyond physical exposure, Guadalupe County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Guadalupe County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for flood events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Guadalupe County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.89 / yr | $100M |
| Tornado | High | 0.31 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 48.52 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.58 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 2.58 / yr | $318K |
| Drought | Medium | 74.62 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $310K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.53 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $509K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.23 / yr | $901K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.30 / yr | $104K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $257 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Guadalupe County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Guadalupe County?
Guadalupe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Guadalupe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (High, $100M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Guadalupe County compare to other Texas counties?
Guadalupe County ranks #19 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Guadalupe County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Guadalupe County since 1972, most often 6 for flood events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Guadalupe County's $124M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.