Hays County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 91th
Hays County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.6, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $109M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hays County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 90.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 3.90 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.33 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 49.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $109M in expected annual loss for a population of 241K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hays County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Hays County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 7 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hays County ranks #22 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | High | 3.90 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | High | 0.33 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | High | 49.01 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 3.53 / yr | $720K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.75 / yr | $68M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.21 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.50 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 80.66 / yr | $998K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.54 / yr | $202K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $388K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $59K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hays County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Flood (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| December 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Old Bastrop Highway Fire Complex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hays County?
Hays County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hays County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (High, $5M EAL), Tornado (High, $19M EAL), Lightning (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hays County compare to other Texas counties?
Hays County ranks #22 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hays County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Hays County since 1970, most often 7 for fire events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hays County's $109M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.