Potter County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Potter County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.5, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $63M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Potter County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.74 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $20M in expected annual loss and about 8.39 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.77 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $63M in expected annual loss for a population of 119K.
Beyond physical exposure, Potter County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Potter County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 8 for fire events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Stinky Fire (fire), declared in May 2026.
Among 254 Texas counties, Potter County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.74 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very High | 8.39 / yr | $20M |
| Tornado | High | 0.77 / yr | $15M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.25 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | High | 101.70 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 49.19 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.53 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $274K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.00 / yr | $690K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.04 / yr | $9M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $163 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Potter County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Stinky Fire in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (8), Hurricane (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Fire | Stinky Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2011 | Fire | Stone Ridge Fire |
| February 2011 | Fire | Willow Creek South Fire Complex |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Potter County?
Potter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Potter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Hail (Very High, $20M EAL), Tornado (High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Potter County compare to other Texas counties?
Potter County ranks #23 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Potter County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Potter County since 1989, most often 8 for fire events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Stinky Fire, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Potter County's $63M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.