Willacy County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Willacy County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.5, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Willacy County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 3.02 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 77.82 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Willacy County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Willacy County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 15 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Willacy County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 3.02 / yr | $11M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | High | 77.82 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 35.65 / yr | $239K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 7.56 / yr | $300K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.19 / yr | $46K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.18 / yr | $10K |
| Hail | Low | 0.43 / yr | $97K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.25 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $178K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $8K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $6 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Willacy County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (15), Flood (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| November 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Willacy County?
Willacy County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Willacy County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $11M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $6M EAL), Drought (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Willacy County compare to other Texas counties?
Willacy County ranks #60 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Willacy County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Willacy County since 1967, most often 15 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Willacy County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.