Kerr County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Kerr County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.2, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Kerr County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $784K in expected annual loss and about 44.87 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $239K in expected annual loss and about 4.00 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 2.75 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 53K.
Beyond physical exposure, Kerr County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Kerr County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Kerr County ranks #62 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 44.87 / yr | $784K |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.00 / yr | $239K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.75 / yr | $18M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $450K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.83 / yr | $647K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 137.65 / yr | $532K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.89 / yr | $548K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.39 / yr | $3K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $551K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $171K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $791K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Kerr County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Fire (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Kerr County?
Kerr County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Kerr County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $784K EAL), Winter Weather (High, $239K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $18M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Kerr County compare to other Texas counties?
Kerr County ranks #62 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Kerr County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Kerr County since 1978, most often 5 for flood events and 4 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Kerr County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.