Tom Green County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Tom Green County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.3, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Tom Green County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tom Green County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 49.42 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 3.59 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $561K in expected annual loss and about 4.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 120K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tom Green County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Tom Green County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 6 for fire events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Tom Green County ranks #61 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 49.42 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | High | 3.59 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.63 / yr | $561K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.11 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 45.60 / yr | $898K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.86 / yr | $14M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.60 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.34 / yr | $451K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $47K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.16 / yr | $32K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $67K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $54 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tom Green County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| April 2011 | Fire | Wildcat Fire |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tom Green County?
Tom Green County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tom Green County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Hail (High, $3M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $561K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tom Green County compare to other Texas counties?
Tom Green County ranks #61 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tom Green County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Tom Green County since 1990, most often 6 for fire events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tom Green County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.