Hale County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Hale County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.4, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Hale County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hale County's expected losses come from hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Very High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 5.75 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 84.45 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $367K in expected annual loss and about 7.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 32K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hale County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Hale County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hale County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Very High | 5.75 / yr | $16M |
| Drought | High | 84.45 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.68 / yr | $367K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.82 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.57 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $255K |
| Lightning | Medium | 47.89 / yr | $507K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.53 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.59 / yr | $149K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.04 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $137K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $23K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $121K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hale County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 1999 | Fire | Extreme Fire Hazards |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hale County?
Hale County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hale County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Very High, $16M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $367K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hale County compare to other Texas counties?
Hale County ranks #58 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hale County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Hale County since 1965, most often 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hale County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.