Victoria County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Victoria County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.5, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $53M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Victoria County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Victoria County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 2.74 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 47.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $53M in expected annual loss for a population of 91K.
Beyond physical exposure, Victoria County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Victoria County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 13 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Victoria County ranks #31 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.13 / yr | $26M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.74 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Medium | 47.64 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.37 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.80 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $261K |
| Lightning | Medium | 58.03 / yr | $459K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.93 / yr | $12M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.46 / yr | $138K |
| Hail | Low | 1.15 / yr | $286K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.11 / yr | $59K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.70 / yr | $323K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.69 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $44K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $21 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Victoria County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (13), Severe Storm (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Victoria County?
Victoria County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Victoria County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $26M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Victoria County compare to other Texas counties?
Victoria County ranks #31 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Victoria County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Victoria County since 1967, most often 13 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Victoria County's $53M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.