Victoria County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Medium

Composite Risk Score

86.5

National percentile: 86th

Victoria County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.5, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $53M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Victoria County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Most of Victoria County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 2.74 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 47.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $53M in expected annual loss for a population of 91K.

Beyond physical exposure, Victoria County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Victoria County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 13 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.

Among 254 Texas counties, Victoria County ranks #31 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $53M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Medium Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 91K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $26M/yr
High $7M/yr
Medium $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Hurricane High 0.13 / yr$26M
Cold Wave High 2.74 / yr$7M
Drought Medium 47.64 / yr$1M
Tornado Medium 0.37 / yr$5M
Heat Wave Medium 8.80 / yr$1M
Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$261K
Lightning Medium 58.03 / yr$459K
Riverine Flood Low 1.93 / yr$12M
Ice Storm Medium 0.46 / yr$138K
Hail Low 1.15 / yr$286K
Winter Weather Low 1.11 / yr$59K
Strong Wind Low 0.70 / yr$323K
Coastal Flood Very Low 3.69 / yr$3K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$44K
Landslide Very Low 0.09 / yr$21
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Victoria County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (13), Severe Storm (4), Flood (4).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
July 2024HurricaneHurricane Beryl
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
August 2020HurricaneTropical Storms Marco and Laura
July 2020HurricaneHurricane Hanna
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
August 2017HurricaneHurricane Harvey
May 2015Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding
September 2008HurricaneHurricane Ike

Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Victoria County?

Victoria County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Victoria County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $26M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Drought (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Victoria County compare to other Texas counties?

Victoria County ranks #31 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Victoria County had?

FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Victoria County since 1967, most often 13 for hurricane events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Victoria County's $53M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.