Johnson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Johnson County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.7, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $71M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Johnson County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 86.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 0.68 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 16.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $71M in expected annual loss for a population of 180K.
Beyond physical exposure, Johnson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Johnson County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Johnson County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.68 / yr | $28M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 16.68 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $7M |
| Hail | Medium | 8.61 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.99 / yr | $507K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.50 / yr | $23M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.81 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.98 / yr | $709K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $120K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $330K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 3.58 / yr | $50K |
| Drought | Low | 44.47 / yr | $60K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $72 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Johnson County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Huntington Brook Fire |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Johnson County?
Johnson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Johnson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $28M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Johnson County compare to other Texas counties?
Johnson County ranks #29 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Johnson County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Johnson County since 1989, most often 5 for fire events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Johnson County's $71M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.