Orange County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Orange County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.9, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $54M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Orange County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 80.47 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $21M in expected annual loss and about 0.15 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $54M in expected annual loss for a population of 85K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Orange County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Orange County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 80.47 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.15 / yr | $21M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.50 / yr | $752K |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.36 / yr | $17M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.30 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $198K |
| Drought | Low | 21.16 / yr | $81K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.61 / yr | $408K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.89 / yr | $43K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.51 / yr | $92K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $15 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Flood (6), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Flood | Tropical Storm Imelda |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (High, $21M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other Texas counties?
Orange County ranks #32 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $54M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.