San Patricio County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
San Patricio County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.4, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates San Patricio County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 63.47 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 2.55 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 69K.
Beyond physical exposure, San Patricio County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: San Patricio County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 18 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Welder Fire (fire), declared in March 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, San Patricio County ranks #34 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | High | 0.13 / yr | $16M |
| Drought | High | 63.47 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.55 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 13.87 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.28 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.54 / yr | $11M |
| Hail | Low | 1.12 / yr | $350K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $80K |
| Lightning | Medium | 47.00 / yr | $220K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.34 / yr | $76K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $139K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.87 / yr | $382K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.81 / yr | $34K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $33 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
San Patricio County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Welder Fire in March 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (18), Flood (5), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | Fire | Welder Fire |
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Patricio County?
San Patricio County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Patricio County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (High, $16M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Patricio County compare to other Texas counties?
San Patricio County ranks #34 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has San Patricio County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for San Patricio County since 1967, most often 18 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Welder Fire, declared in March 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Patricio County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.