Starr County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Starr County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.8, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Starr County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 2.53 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $369K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $875K in expected annual loss and about 7.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 66K.
Beyond physical exposure, Starr County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Starr County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, including 10 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Starr County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 2.53 / yr | $18M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $369K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.05 / yr | $875K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.08 / yr | $861K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.50 / yr | $8M |
| Drought | Medium | 75.98 / yr | $275K |
| Hail | Low | 0.56 / yr | $268K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $74K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 0.58 / yr | $25K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $427K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $179 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 35.96 / yr | $39K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $65K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Starr County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1967, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Severe Storm (3), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| July 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Hanna |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| August 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Alex |
| June 2010 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Alex |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Starr County?
Starr County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Starr County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $18M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $369K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $875K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Starr County compare to other Texas counties?
Starr County ranks #35 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Starr County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Starr County since 1967, most often 10 for hurricane events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Starr County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.