Henderson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Henderson County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.5, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Henderson County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 0.63 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.70 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.57 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 82K.
Beyond physical exposure, Henderson County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Henderson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Henderson County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.63 / yr | $14M |
| Tornado | High | 0.70 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.57 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 15.63 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.54 / yr | $839K |
| Lightning | High | 57.21 / yr | $607K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.13 / yr | $347K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $191K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $10M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.16 / yr | $84K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $287K |
| Drought | Low | 24.75 / yr | $181K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $201K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Henderson County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (4), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Henderson County?
Henderson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Henderson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $14M EAL), Tornado (High, $7M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Henderson County compare to other Texas counties?
Henderson County ranks #36 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Henderson County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Henderson County since 1966, most often 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Henderson County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.