Runnels County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 26th
Runnels County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.5, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Runnels County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $989K in expected annual loss and about 43.85 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $823K in expected annual loss and about 5.18 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $920K in expected annual loss and about 2.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Runnels County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Runnels County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Runnels County ranks #179 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 43.85 / yr | $989K |
| Hail | Medium | 5.18 / yr | $823K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.00 / yr | $920K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $794K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.79 / yr | $46K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.65 / yr | $747K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.89 / yr | $158K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.83 / yr | $100K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $5K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $9 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Runnels County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (3), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Runnels County?
Runnels County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Runnels County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $989K EAL), Hail (Medium, $823K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $920K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Runnels County compare to other Texas counties?
Runnels County ranks #179 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Runnels County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Runnels County since 1993, most often 3 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Runnels County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.