Carson County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Carson County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 25.2, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carson County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 25.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 83.23 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 9.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carson County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Carson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was North 207 Fire (fire), declared in December 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Carson County ranks #181 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 83.23 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 9.18 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.37 / yr | $124K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.88 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.45 / yr | $467K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.39 / yr | $43K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.47 / yr | $512K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $60K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 49.14 / yr | $58K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.68 / yr | $26K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $761K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $2 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carson County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently North 207 Fire in December 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Severe Ice Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| December 2021 | Fire | North 207 Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carson County?
Carson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 25.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $6M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carson County compare to other Texas counties?
Carson County ranks #181 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carson County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Carson County since 1992, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was North 207 Fire, declared in December 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carson County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.