Falls County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 26th
Falls County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 26.2, 26th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Falls County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 26.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 26th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.44 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $339K in expected annual loss and about 0.05 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $222K in expected annual loss and about 45.66 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Falls County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Falls County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Falls County ranks #180 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $339K |
| Drought | Low | 45.66 / yr | $222K |
| Hail | Low | 3.57 / yr | $280K |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.91 / yr | $225K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $42K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.63 / yr | $305K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.53 / yr | $635K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.79 / yr | $30K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.94 / yr | $24K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.73 / yr | $170K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $21 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Falls County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Fire (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Falls County?
Falls County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 26.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 26th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Falls County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $339K EAL), Drought (Low, $222K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Falls County compare to other Texas counties?
Falls County ranks #180 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Falls County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Falls County since 1974, most often 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Falls County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.