Newton County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 27th
Newton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 27.2, 27th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Newton County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 27.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 27th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $160K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $277K in expected annual loss and about 76.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Newton County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Newton County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 7 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Newton County ranks #177 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $160K |
| Lightning | Medium | 76.61 / yr | $277K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $97K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.80 / yr | $207K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.69 / yr | $657K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Drought | Very Low | 26.41 / yr | $16K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $32K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $128 |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.61 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.04 / yr | $53K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 1.03 / yr | $134K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.17 / yr | $106K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Newton County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Fire (7), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Newton County?
Newton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 27.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 27th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Newton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $160K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $277K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Newton County compare to other Texas counties?
Newton County ranks #177 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Newton County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Newton County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 7 for fire events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Newton County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.