Red River County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Red River County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.7, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Red River County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 64.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Red River County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $531K in expected annual loss and about 35.04 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.72 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Red River County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Red River County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 5 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Red River County ranks #92 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.16 / yr | $11M |
| Drought | Medium | 35.04 / yr | $531K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.72 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 4.87 / yr | $243K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $52K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 18.11 / yr | $341K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $34K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.00 / yr | $411K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $83K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.83 / yr | $238K |
| Lightning | Low | 60.32 / yr | $82K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.16 / yr | $15K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $962K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $12 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Red River County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (5), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Red River County?
Red River County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Red River County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $11M EAL), Drought (Medium, $531K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Red River County compare to other Texas counties?
Red River County ranks #92 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Red River County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Red River County since 1966, most often 5 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Red River County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.