Kendall County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Kendall County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.5, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $26M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Kendall County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.62 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $753K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $684K in expected annual loss and about 46.99 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $26M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Kendall County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Kendall County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 5 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Kendall County ranks #90 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 3.62 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $753K |
| Lightning | Medium | 46.99 / yr | $684K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 3.89 / yr | $184K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.75 / yr | $17M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 129.89 / yr | $642K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.15 / yr | $861K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $2K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $63K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.00 / yr | $325K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $10K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Kendall County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Fire (5), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| October 2007 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Erin |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Kendall County?
Kendall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Kendall County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $753K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $684K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Kendall County compare to other Texas counties?
Kendall County ranks #90 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Kendall County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Kendall County since 1978, most often 5 for flood events and 5 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Kendall County's $26M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.