Brown County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Brown County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.9, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Brown County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 64.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.07 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $620K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $150K in expected annual loss and about 4.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Brown County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Brown County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 7 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Brown County ranks #91 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 5.07 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $620K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.16 / yr | $150K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $12M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.52 / yr | $813K |
| Drought | Medium | 38.20 / yr | $459K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.51 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 9.00 / yr | $487K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $35K |
| Lightning | Low | 46.34 / yr | $153K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $72 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Brown County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Flood (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2018 | Fire | 259 Fire |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Brown County?
Brown County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Brown County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $620K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $150K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Brown County compare to other Texas counties?
Brown County ranks #91 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Brown County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Brown County since 1989, most often 7 for fire events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Brown County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.