Randall County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Randall County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.8, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $70M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Randall County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.56 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 8.30 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 71.13 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $70M in expected annual loss for a population of 141K.
Beyond physical exposure, Randall County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Randall County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 7 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hunggate Fire (fire), declared in May 2026.
Among 254 Texas counties, Randall County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.56 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | High | 8.30 / yr | $13M |
| Drought | High | 71.13 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | High | 0.85 / yr | $18M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.34 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.43 / yr | $8M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 50.26 / yr | $626K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.48 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.61 / yr | $13M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.34 / yr | $138K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $197 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Randall County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Hunggate Fire in May 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (7), Hurricane (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Fire | Hunggate Fire |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 2011 | Fire | Pitt Road Fire |
| February 2011 | Fire | Tanglewood Fire Complex |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Randall County?
Randall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Randall County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Hail (High, $13M EAL), Drought (High, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Randall County compare to other Texas counties?
Randall County ranks #28 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Randall County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Randall County since 1989, most often 7 for fire events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hunggate Fire, declared in May 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Randall County's $70M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.