Brazos County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Brazos County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.4, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $63M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Brazos County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Brazos County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.95 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 59.94 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $63M in expected annual loss for a population of 234K.
Beyond physical exposure, Brazos County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Brazos County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1991, including 7 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Brazos County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.95 / yr | $15M |
| Lightning | Very High | 59.94 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.33 / yr | $15M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.58 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | High | 2.53 / yr | $353K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.36 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.48 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 30.34 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.85 / yr | $499K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.18 / yr | $19M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $65K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $145K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $223 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Brazos County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1991, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Flood (3), Fire (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| September 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ike |
| August 2008 | Hurricane | Hurricane Gustav |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Brazos County?
Brazos County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Brazos County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $15M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL), Tornado (High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Brazos County compare to other Texas counties?
Brazos County ranks #26 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Brazos County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Brazos County since 1991, most often 7 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Brazos County's $63M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.