Rains County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 14th
Rains County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 14.1, 14th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Rains County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 14.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 14th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $500K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.20 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $224K in expected annual loss and about 31.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rains County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Rains County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 3 for flood events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Rains County ranks #204 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.10 / yr | $500K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 31.00 / yr | $224K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.63 / yr | $331K |
| Hail | Low | 5.81 / yr | $222K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $34K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.79 / yr | $478K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.19 / yr | $290K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.61 / yr | $101K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $34K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 3.32 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $9 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rains County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rains County?
Rains County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 14.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 14th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rains County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $500K EAL), Tornado (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Low, $224K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rains County compare to other Texas counties?
Rains County ranks #204 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rains County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Rains County since 1966, most often 3 for flood events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rains County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.